Rehearse, don't predict
The goal is not to guess which future happens but to build a strategy robust enough to succeed in any of them — the practice Shell used to navigate the 1973 oil crisis.
Innovation NavigatorStrategic Game
Scenario Mapping
reactivity→proactive resilience
The Goal
simulate future disaster or success scenarios to reduce strategic surprise.
Ideal For
Leadership teams planning for 2026+ disruptions.
The Shift
From reactivity to proactive resilience.
The Neuroscience
Mentally rehearsing plausible futures draws on prospection — the mind's capacity to simulate events before they happen. Rehearsed scenarios are recognized faster when reality starts to rhyme with them, converting surprise into prepared response.
A scenario-mapping sprint, step by step
- Pick the two forces (15 min)Isolate the two most important, most uncertain forces bearing on your strategy — these become the axes of the 2×2.
- Sketch four worlds (20 min)The quadrants define four plausible futures. Plausible, not probable: each world only needs to be logically consistent.
- Avoid heaven and hell (as you write)Pure utopias and doomsdays teach nothing — "nothing to learn in heaven, no one wants to visit hell." Keep every world mixed and believable.
- Stress-test the strategy (20 min)Walk the current strategy through each world. Where does it thrive, and where does it break?
- Find the no-regret moves (15 min)Identify the investments and capabilities that pay off across all four worlds — these move to the top of the plan.
- Discard when familiar (ongoing)Scenarios are scaffolding for thinking, not predictions. Once a scenario feels familiar, retire it and build a fresh one.
The techniques, and why they work
Selected research
- Wack, P. (1985). Scenarios: Uncharted waters ahead. Harvard Business Review, 63(5), 73–89.
From the research
The thinking behind this lab, published in full: