Predict before you run
Write the prediction with a number, a date and how sure you are before the cycle starts. Once we know the outcome, we tend to remember having expected it, so a prediction written afterwards is marked reconstructed.
Innovation NavigatorStrategic Game
Lean Learning Loops
from run the sprint, next ticket→to predict, compare, decide, log
The Goal
Run every cycle of an experiment or initiative as a learning loop: write the prediction before the cycle starts, compare it with what happened, decide KEEP, KILL or ITERATE on a set date, and log a one-sentence learning that sharpens the next prediction.
Ideal For
Innovation teams, R&D groups, growth and product teams running repeated experiments or multi-cycle bets, where each cycle should make the next one smarter instead of starting from zero.
The Shift
From run the sprint, next ticket to predict, compare, decide, log.
The Science
Teams that review their work systematically tend to improve more: across studies, debriefs improved performance by roughly a fifth to a quarter. In randomized field trials, founders taught to state hypotheses and test them were more likely to drop or change weak ideas. Writing the prediction before the cycle matters because, once we know the outcome, we tend to remember having expected it.
Lean Learning Loops, step by step
- Pick a live initiativeAn experiment or initiative with at least three more cycles to run: how long a cycle is, and what it is trying to find out.
- Predict before the cycleWrite the prediction with a number, a date and how sure you are. If another team couldn’t score it, it isn’t a prediction yet.
- Measure and compareDecide what you’ll measure and what you’ll compare it with: a baseline, the last cycle, a control.
- Decide on the dateWrite what result means KEEP, KILL or ITERATE, and set the decision date now.
- Log the learningOne sentence, saying how sure it is (a signal from a few cases or a finding from many) and what it changes in the next prediction, in one log with an owner. Three cycles without a change in the prediction: stop or rethink the bet.
- Commit“By [date], [owner] writes the cycle-1 prediction in [log]; we decide KEEP, KILL or ITERATE on [date],” with the decision date in the calendar.
The techniques, and why they work
Decide on a date
Compare what happened with the prediction and decide KEEP, KILL or ITERATE on the date you set. In randomized field trials, founders who stated hypotheses and tested them were more likely to drop or change weak ideas.
Log it, and cap it
One-sentence learnings, each saying how sure it is, in one log with an owner that is read at the start of every cycle; three cycles without a change in the prediction means stop or rethink the bet. Teams that review their work systematically tend to improve more.
Selected research
- Tannenbaum, S. I., & Cerasoli, C. P. (2013). Do team and individual debriefs enhance performance? A meta-analysis. Human Factors, 55(1), 231–245.
- Camuffo, A., Cordova, A., Gambardella, A., & Spina, C. (2020). A scientific approach to entrepreneurial decision making: Evidence from a randomized control trial. Management Science, 66(2), 564–586.
- Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., Messinese, D., Novelli, E., Paolucci, E., & Spina, C. (2024). A scientific approach to entrepreneurial decision-making: Large-scale replication and extension. Strategic Management Journal, 45(6), 1209–1237.
- Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight ≠ foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1(3), 288–299.
- Ries, E. (2011). The Lean Startup. Crown Business. (Practitioner source.)
From the research
The thinking behind this lab, published in full: